作者： adminf

China’s economic development and carbon emission reduction go hand in hand and reinforce each other. The current contradiction is one of the challenges China faces in the process of economic transformation and upgrading to achieve high-quality development. Although there may be some pains in this process, only by being determined to face up to the problems and solve them can we achieve leapfrog and high-quality development of the Chinese economy.

More than 20 provinces in China are suffering from power shortages due to coal shortages and soaring coal prices. In this regard, some Westerners are concerned that China will not be able to meet its carbon peak and carbon neutral targets on time if it redevelops coal power on a large scale.

Such fears are misplaced. Coal is a high-carbon energy source. In the context of climate change and low-carbon development, it is the general trend of the world to gradually reduce the use of coal, and China is no exception. However, a good understanding of reality helps to make objective and prudent judgments. In addition to increasing demand, the main reason for China’s coal shortage is insufficient supply. The reason behind it is related to China’s efforts in recent years to reduce the proportion of coal in the energy mix. In the supply-side structural reform that began in 2016, China has shut down 1 billion tons of coal capacity and eliminated or closed a large number of coal mines. The coal shortage reminds us that development is the premise and basis for solving all problems. We should promote low-carbon transformation in a balanced and orderly manner while ensuring stable and safe energy supply.

But this does not mean that China will slow down its low-carbon development process. Recently, a series of high-profile intensive heavy file, including the central committee of the communist party of China, issued by the State Council “about complete and accurate to fully implement the new concept of development to do a good job of carbon of peak carbon neutral opinion”, the State Council issued the action plan for peak carbon up to 2030 years ago, as well as “China’s response to climate change policy and action”, the white paper, Implementation plans will also be released in key sectors such as energy, industry, construction and transportation, as well as in key industries such as coal, power, steel and cement. China has demonstrated its determination to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality with concrete actions. It has reaffirmed that it will introduce capacity control policies for coal power generation, coal chemical industry and other industries to accelerate the pace of coal reduction. The growth of coal consumption was strictly controlled during the 14th Five-Year Plan period and gradually decreased during the 15th Five-year Plan period. We will coordinate the development of coal and power plants, ensure their supply and adjust peaks, strictly control the installed scale of coal and power plants, and speed up energy-saving upgrading and flexible transformation of existing coal and power units. At the same time, China reiterated that it will build a new type of power system with new energy as the main body, and improve the power grid’s ability to absorb and regulate a high proportion of renewable energy.

In fact, the share of coal-fired power generation in China’s total installed power generation capacity has dropped from 65.7 percent in 2012 to 49.1 percent in 2020, a historic leap of less than half. China ranks first in the world in cumulative installed capacity of hydropower, wind power and photovoltaic power generation.

Energy shortage is a common challenge facing the world at present, and its core problem is the balance and coordination between energy supply and carbon emission reduction in economic development. As far as China is concerned, reducing carbon emissions is not only China’s solemn commitment to the world, but also an integral part of China’s economic transformation and upgrading and the realization of high-quality development. In other words, China’s economic development and carbon emission reduction go hand in hand and reinforce each other. The current contradiction is one of the challenges China faces in the process of economic transformation and upgrading to achieve high-quality development. Although there may be some pains in this process, only by being determined to face up to the problems and solve them can we achieve leapfrog and high-quality development of the Chinese economy. To fully, accurately and comprehensively implement the new vision on development, we must not give up eating for fear of choking or turn back when confronted with obstacles. At the same time, we should not ignore the complexity, long-term nature and arduous nature of the current problems, and we should not expect to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality overnight.

We believe that the future is bright and the road is tortuous. We have every reason to be confident that China will reach its carbon peak and carbon neutral targets as scheduled.

With the support of new energy properties, the traditional phosphorus chemical industry is attracting increasing attention from the capital market. Wind statistics show that since the third quarter of this year, the purchase turnover of phosphorus chemical sector reached 159.7 billion yuan, up nearly 19 times year-on-year, and the total market value of constituent stocks reached 278.4 billion yuan, up 122% in a single quarter.

The driving force behind bringing phosphorus to site C is “lithium iron phosphate”. Since this year, with the withdrawal of the national high subsidies for new energy vehicles, as well as the technological breakthrough of the energy density of lithium iron phosphate batteries, lithium iron phosphate has the advantage of low cost began to stage a comeback, the number of installed quickly picked up.

Reporters found that, including Tesla, BYD (002594.SZ), Xiaopeng, the Great Wall and other car companies have increased the proportion of lithium iron phosphate battery models. Daimler also recently said that mercedes-benz will switch to lithium iron phosphate batteries for some models, and Tesla has announced that all standard range versions of electric vehicles worldwide will switch to lithium iron phosphate batteries.

Lithium iron phosphate is the end product of the whole phosphorous chemical industry chain, and the raw material at the most upstream of the industrial chain is phosphate ore. In other words, how much lithium iron phosphate can be produced in the industrial chain ultimately depends on the amount of phosphate ore mined.

From the perspective of downstream application, phosphate ore is mainly used to produce phosphate fertilizer (mainly monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate), accounting for more than 70%. As food prices have risen in recent years, so has the desire to grow, demand for phosphate fertilizers and the pesticide glyphosate.

Market demand is growing rapidly, however, phosphorus is an essential element for plant and animal growth, phosphorus fertilizer is the key to food production, and phosphorus resources are not renewable. In recent years, China has designated phosphate as a strategic resource, limiting its exploitation and export; At the same time, under the restriction of energy consumption and environmental protection policies, the amount of phosphate ore mining is decreasing.

By the end of July 2021, China’s phosphate ore inventory level was about 1.86 million tons, down about 42.6% from the same period last year, and down about 80% from 2016, indicating a significant shortage of supply. China is already struggling to produce enough phosphate ore just to meet its agricultural needs.

From a global perspective, the United States has been forced to stop the export of phosphate ore since 2002, and the European Union has also issued relevant legal documents to restrict the disorderly exploitation of phosphate ore in its member states.

In the middle reaches, Baichuan Yingfu analyst Jiang Chen told reporters that industrial grade ammonium phosphate as the preparation of lithium iron acid precursor iron phosphate necessary raw material, its capacity and phosphate fertilizer overlap. Due to the control of ammonium phosphate production capacity policy, when the demand for ammonium is strong, it is the conventional way of phosphate chemical enterprises to supplement ammonium production capacity through ammonium conversion, but in the current high prices of all kinds of agricultural materials, ammonium also has a good profit space, resulting in ammonium production capacity can not be effectively supplemented.

In addition, due to the high purity phosphoric acid wet process has high technical barriers and matching restrictions, industrial grade phosphoric acid, another key intermediate link of lithium iron phosphate, is also more prominent contradiction between supply and demand.

“Mineral mining in the upper reaches and chemical production capacity in the middle reaches are strictly limited. At the same time, they are also facing the squeeze of agricultural demand. Phosphorus chemical production capacity is difficult to meet the market demand of agriculture and new energy. “A domestic phosphorus chemical enterprise related person in charge told financial union reporters.

As a strategic resource, it is impossible to let go of restrictions. With the further growth of demand, the contradiction between supply and demand of phosphorus chemical industry chain can only be further intensified. The “seller’s market” for phosphorus chemicals will continue unless new technologies and products emerge that can replace them.

Industries with limited supply and growing demand often contain excellent investment opportunities, which is also the logic behind the recent surge in the phosphorus chemical sector in the secondary market. Some private investors said that the holding of new energy will open up hundreds of billions of market space for the phosphorus chemical industry. Under the widespread contradiction between supply and demand, the value of the core link in the industrial chain will be more prominent.

From the perspective of industrial chain of phosphorous chemical industry, in the short term, enterprises with high-purity phosphoric acid and industrial-grade ammonium phosphate production capacity resources and technical reserves are expected to take the lead in integrating with the new energy industry, and their performance will be the first to release; In the medium and long term, the value of phosphate resources will be greatly enhanced. In addition, due to the relatively simple downstream of lithium iron phosphate, binding downstream battery manufacturers in advance will also bring obvious channel advantages for enterprises.

Coal prices continue to hit high so that once silent “coal crazy” again. Various departments have moved to promote coal prices to return to the fundamentals, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and other places have also sounded the call of coal supply, the continuous rise of coal prices may usher in a turning point in the near future.

Keeping supply and price stable in multiple regions to curb “Crazy Coal”

In August, coal prices picked up again. As of October 20, coke main contract nearly three months tired up 45.50%; Coking coal rose 63.14%; Thermal coal soared by 109.42% and broke the 1,000 yuan mark in early September. Since then, it has hit a record high and approached 2,000 yuan on October 19.

On spot prices, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that on September 24, the comprehensive transaction prices of 5500 kcal, 5000 kcal and 4500 kcal thermal coal in Qinhuangdao Port rose 194 yuan, 182 yuan and 151 yuan respectively on August 27.

Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Shanxi, China’s main coal producing regions, have recently issued notices to ensure coal supply and increase production. For example, The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region has made every effort to promote the nuclear increase and release of coal production capacity. It has approved 89 coal mines with increased production capacity of 138 million tons annually. At the same time, we encouraged 63 coal mines on the list of coal mines guaranteed by the State to sign additional mid-to-long term contracts in the fourth quarter, and assigned the task of sourcing 53 million tons of coal in 18 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government to 29 key coal producers.

The market supervision administration of shaanxi province to standardize the behavior of coal enterprise price policy reminder letter “, points out that coal producers began to “restrain coal price one hundred action” of yulin city, further regulate the behavior of the coal market price, strike hard coal enterprise sales prices rose too fast or too high, colluding or bid up the price of illegal behavior.

On October 18, Zhang Xiaoguang, secretary of the Party Committee and Director of Shaanxi Provincial Development and Reform Commission, held a special meeting on energy supply protection, stressing that to ensure a reasonable level of coal inventory, resolutely put an end to the shutdown of power generation enterprises short of coal; We will continue to release effective coal production capacity.

Shanxi and Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Tianjin and other 14 provinces and municipalities signed the fourth quarter of long-term coal supply contracts to ensure energy supply…

Government and enterprise linkage to ease “Coal rush”

Zhongxin Jingwei noted that in order to alleviate the “coal rush”, the policy level has taken a series of measures, enterprises have responded.

An executive meeting of The State Council on Oct 8 required major coal-producing provinces and major coal enterprises to increase production and supply as required. An executive meeting of The State Council, held on Oct 20, stressed the need to ensure winter heating in northern regions, especially northeast China. We will do our best to ensure the production and transportation of coal for heating. We will crack down on speculation in the coal market according to law.

On the evening of October 19, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) launched a “combination” of measures to intervene in coal prices according to law. To organize and hold symposiums on ensuring supply and price stabilization for key coal, electricity, oil, gas and transportation enterprises; The investigation in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange emphasizes strengthening supervision according to law and severely investigating and punishing malicious speculation of thermal coal futures by capital.

October 20, the National Development and Reform Commission, the group went to hebei qinhuangdao port coal price guarantee for steady work, caofeidian port supervision, resolutely curb, in accordance with the regulation of hoarding hype, ensure this winter spring energy security and stability of power supply, and in henan coal reservoir with trading center hebi park research, emphasizes to crack down on coal spot market prices, disturb the order of market economy.

On the same day, the CSRC stressed that it will guide exchanges to take a number of measures such as raising the standard of handling fees, tightening trading limits, and expanding the scope of deliverables to resolutely curb excessive speculation and put an end to malicious speculation by capital.

Enterprises, for example, the National Energy Group held a special meeting on supply protection on October 21 and proposed that the coal industry should ensure orderly production increase and high yield of self-produced coal in the fourth quarter. Mines that meet the requirements for production should arrange production according to a quarter of the annual capacity, while those that do not meet the requirements should be organized according to the maximization.

At the same time, the National Energy Group Coal Management Company, China Coal Group, Jineng Holding Group, Inner Mongolia Yitai Group promised to stabilize the price of supply: around the Bohai Sea port water calorific value of 5500 kcal thermal coal closing price in 1800 yuan/ton below; The closing price of 5000 kcal thermal coal is less than 1500 yuan/ton; The closing price of 4500 kcal thermal coal is less than 1200 yuan/ton; The price of high calorie thermal coal other than those mentioned above shall not exceed 2,000 yuan/ton.

Can coal prices hold down?

With a series of measures to ensure stable prices, coal prices will be out of a round of adjustment? At present, reflected in the futures disk, October 19 day and night disk, coking coal, coke, thermal coal have dropped limit; October 20 -21, coal “three brothers” still extended limit.

Chen Li, chief economist and director of research institute of Chuancai Securities, told Zhongxin Jingwei that the current market reaction is relatively positive. The linkage between coal price and power price is the focus of the current market. From the comparison of coal price and power generation cost, there has been an inverted price of electricity. Therefore, while liberalizing the power price mechanism, how to further stabilize the supply and price of coal is a top priority.

Ruida futures analysis, regulatory level of the relevant policies on the short-term impact of the coal market will continue. The current thermal coal winter consumption season has begun, coal prices have certain support. From the output of the fourth quarter in recent years, coal output has increased, and under the background of increasing efforts to guarantee supply at present, coal output in the fourth quarter of this year may also significantly increase, coal prices will return to the normal range of fluctuations.

The China Coal Transport and Marketing Association expects that coal supply will maintain growth in the later stage as coal production capacity in major producing areas is released at a faster pace, while coal demand growth will slow down, and the supply and demand situation in the coal market will gradually improve. It is reported that from October 1 to 13, the association monitored the average daily coal output of coal enterprises increased by 4.5% compared with September, and the effect of increasing coal production and supply gradually appeared.

CCB futures reminds in the research report, the regulatory level of news reflects the state for the thermal coal supply stability of the clear attitude, strength is large, thermal coal fundamentals are expected to improve, coking coal, coke, thermal coal futures plate prices face the risk of rapid decline.

“In June issued a notice, in September officially announced the list of rooftop distributed photovoltaic development pilot, rooftop distributed photovoltaic construction can be said to have been fully rolled out. Proportionally, the installation scale of this round of installed heat will exceed 1000GW, which will have a market scale of more than 3 trillion yuan according to 3.5 yuan/watt.” Liu Jimao, founder of Hongda Photovoltaic, told Securities Daily that in addition to the civil market, under the national “dual carbon” target, the electricity costs of some high-energy enterprises will increase significantly, and these enterprises are also actively participating in the construction of photovoltaic power station projects.

Regarding the future development situation of photovoltaic industry, the Blockchain Application Division of Yuanguang Software gave a set of optimistic data: by 2035, the total installed capacity of photovoltaic is expected to reach 3 billion kW, and the annual power generation will be 3.5 trillion KWH, accounting for about 28% of the total social electricity consumption in that year.

Under the policy promotion and industrial focus, photovoltaic plate has become a hot topic in the market. Since The Comprehensive Department of the National Energy Administration issued the Notice on Submitting the Pilot Scheme of Rooftop Distributed PHOTOVOLTAIC Development for the Whole County (city or District) on June 20, as of October 20, the photovoltaic industry index (931151) increased by 53.40% in four months.

If you take a flight at Daxing International Airport, you will find dozens of photovoltaic panels on the outside of the runway and on the roofs of some buildings. This is China’s first photovoltaic project built next to the runway in a flight area.

Energy-saving technical service co., LTD., general manager of Beijing capital airport xue-gang li to introduce “securities journal” reporter, with the increase of the airport and the use of high power equipment, airport consumes electricity to hundred million calculation for the unit, so large power supply pressure has been the development of the airport important topics, pv projects through the airport, can effectively alleviate the airport area power supply side are in short supply, At the same time, energy conservation and emission reduction can be achieved, helping to build a green airport.

On the grass on the south side of the north runway of the airport, photovoltaic panels are neatly laid. Li Xuegang said that the project repeatedly demonstrated the problems of light reflection and light pollution, and finally passed the evaluation of relevant departments to determine that the construction of photovoltaic on the grass around the runway is safe and feasible. The project adopts the mode of “self-use, surplus electricity online” to provide green energy for Daxing Airport and reduce electricity cost.

Daxing District of Beijing, as one of the 676 whole counties (cities, districts) rooftop distributed pv development pilot, civil rooftop distributed PV is under construction. Yang Zhen (pseudonym), a villager in Caiyu Town, Daxing District, told Securities Daily that there were relevant policies in the village several years ago, but few people were willing to participate. On the one hand, they wanted to renovate the roof, and on the other hand, they were not interested in photovoltaic projects.

“Now it is different. I heard that there is a new policy. As long as we rent out the roof, we can install the photovoltaic and generate electricity at a lower cost for our own use. Yang Zhen said.

Since this year under the promotion of the policy, the rapid development of rooftop distributed photovoltaic, has announced the launch of the whole county rooftop distributed photovoltaic project. Reporters found in the survey, because of good prospects, high income, some residents will be called the rooftop distributed photovoltaic photovoltaic pension.

“It cost less than 90,000 yuan to install photovoltaic solar panels on my roof, which will pay back the cost in more than five years.” Li Min (pseudonym) from Hezhuang Township, Hengshui City, Hebei Province, told Securities Daily that photovoltaic power generation is sent to the grid and income is paid each month according to the amount of electricity generated. “The specific depends on the weather. When the sun is good, I can get up to 1,800 yuan a month. When it rained a while ago, the income was not good, but on average, I can get about 50 yuan a day.”

Photovoltaic solar panel salesman Xiao Zhang told reporters that because of the rising cost of components, before it can do more than 5 years back, but now it takes about 6 years. But in today’s market, annual returns of around 17% are still a bargain.

Notably, installing photovoltaic solar panels in rural areas is not easy. “The installation of solar panels, not want to install can be installed, mainly depends on the capacity of the village transformer, our village is only a few people installed.” Li said.

“Whether photovoltaic solar panels can be installed depends on how many people in the village install them. If more people install them, they may not be able to install them.” Zhang explained to reporters that the rural transformer capacity is limited, the general coverage is less than 5%.

To solve the shortage of rural power grid capacity is a key point for photovoltaic development. In addition, with the application of new technologies, traditional solar photovoltaic materials attached to buildings (BAPV) tend to be replaced by the new technology-led building integrated photovoltaic (BIPV), which will make pv part of the external structure of buildings.

Compared with BAPV, BIPV does not need to be fixed with a stent, Zhao Zihao, a researcher at The Head Leopard Research Institute, told Securities Daily. BIPV combines photovoltaic modules and building materials without exposure, providing greater safety and longer service life, while allowing a degree of customization. In addition to being applied in rooftop PHOTOVOLTAIC scenes, BIPV can also be used as curtain wall and sunshade in more scenes. As a photovoltaic building material, BIPV is more suitable for incremental building construction and is the key direction of future enterprise development.

At present, the rooftop distributed photovoltaic project is mainly based on the main body of the roof (property owner) renting the roof and the investor sharing the power generation income, and some of them are invested by the owner himself. , million sunshine new energy, President of Beijing QiHaiShen “securities journal” reporter said, in the policy, driven by energy type of state-owned enterprises, state-owned enterprises have been heavily into the distributed photovoltaic market, some private photovoltaic enterprises and stronger financing ability of listed companies, are also actively expand distributed photovoltaic business, business types of state-owned enterprises, state-owned enterprises + corporation cooperation is becoming more common.

Therefore, photovoltaic construction mode is also in reform, is no longer the traditional single enterprise investment contract project. Wu Decheng, project manager of a technology company, told reporters that the photovoltaic industry is actively promoting the “1+1+X” model, that is, a large energy enterprise with strength as the lead enterprise, responsible for providing funds, professionals, to assist local mapping resources, planning, overall promotion of project construction; 1 financial institution cooperates with the lead enterprise to provide green credit support; A number of local platform companies participate in the coordination and implementation of roof resources, operation and maintenance of information detection platform and so on according to the division of industry chain. Because it is to be led by large photovoltaic construction enterprises, the leading players in the photovoltaic industry are expected to gain better development space in this round of rooftop distributed photovoltaic construction.

Distributed photovoltaic can reduce the energy consumption of buildings in daily operation, and large-scale construction and new technology operation, put forward higher standards in construction technology and installation, for enterprises in the industry, will also bring a new survival of the fittest.

“Enterprises whose own products and technologies can be naturally transferred to BIPV application scenarios, or whose application scenarios of their own solutions overlap with BIPV, will have the opportunity to participate in this round of BIPV construction and development,” Yang Xiao, a researcher at The Head Leopard Research Institute, told Securities Daily.

Driven by technology, the combination of photovoltaic and architecture is getting closer and closer. Distributed photovoltaic is expected to bring huge incremental space to the entire photovoltaic industry. According to the industry forecast, in the next 1-2 years, the distributed photovoltaic market will usher in a comprehensive outbreak.

In an interview with Securities Daily, Chang Yang, president secretary of Jinkotech, said that the company has participated in the application of rooftop distributed pv projects in more than 40 counties, and most counties have completed the application to provincial energy departments. At the same time, the company has completed strategic contracts with more than 20 counties and districts, and plans to lock in a project scale of nearly 8GW.

Chang Yang said: “in the future, the company will actively play the advantages in the field of distributed photovoltaic, to promote the county as an opportunity to promote the business together. At the same time of accelerating the distribution of industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic, gradually power consumer market.” Changyang revealed that recently, the company has joint household field partners to jointly commit to household photovoltaic project development, for household distributed projects to establish development standards and requirements.

Solar photovoltaic technology wave and incremental space also promote the expansion of the listed company, Oriental wealth, according to data from the Choice of citic industry classification of 31 listed companies of photovoltaic plates, from 2015 to 2019, only 10 start increases the financing plans of listed companies, and the scale up to 16 nearly two years, especially in 2021, Eight companies have announced plans for private increases.

Jufeng Investment chief investment adviser Zhang Cuixia said that since the beginning of this year, photovoltaic industry policy, especially the distributed photovoltaic field has a clear policy drive and incremental space release, photovoltaic plate has become the focus of market funds and investors.

Zhang Cuixia told Securities Daily: “In recent years, the performance and stock price of listed photovoltaic companies fluctuate greatly. On the one hand, the supply and demand of the industrial chain is affected, such as silicon cells, photovoltaic glass and other links have appeared imbalance between supply and demand, so photovoltaic companies with upstream and downstream integration are more favored by capital; On the other hand, with the spread of photovoltaic construction, the increase of related operation and management costs, but also promote the use of digital technology to improve efficiency of enterprises in the industry, in addition to the scale of competition, photovoltaic enterprises’ scientific and technological hard strength and comprehensive cost control ability, has become an important standard for the market to evaluate the company’s valuation.

Digital technology represented by blockchain has played an increasingly important supporting role in the sustainable development of photovoltaic industry, and has begun to penetrate into the commercialization of power generation.

“‘ distributed ‘is the core concept of blockchain, energy Internet and blockchain naturally fit, especially distributed energy, the development of distributed photovoltaic can reflect this feature.” Huang Zhaoci, general manager of Blockchain application Division of Yuanguang Software, told reporters that power energy is a means of production but also a commodity that can be directly traded, with market value. In the future, with the optimization of energy structure and the development of power generation grid-connected, it is expected to form a blockchain with individual, collective and national energy development as nodes.

Huang Zhaoci believes that through investment behavior made by photovoltaic power station, the energy generated is both production material and goods, to block chain technology to construction of distributed energy trading platform, using smart contracts in this scene, in the form of a “double hung double pick” in the distributed energy within the scenario simulation rules of the market pricing, can better reflect supply and demand and market value. At the same time, it can promote the investment of social capital in photovoltaic power stations, meet the national energy development direction and requirements, and create more clean energy to optimize the energy structure.

In addition to trading, blockchain technology also has many application scenarios in the current photovoltaic subsidy settlement. In the calculation of electricity charges, financial rules are linked into smart contracts to form a consensus mechanism to realize automatic calculation and information sharing. If invoice robots are introduced to connect pv users, businesses and finance, an intelligent settlement system based on blockchain and artificial intelligence can be built.

About block chain with application scenario for the grid system, its block chain technology company director wang dong to journalists, for example, in early September this year, Beijing electric power trade center started the national pilot green electricity market transactions, and the pilot transaction based on block chain, a new generation of information technology as the market main body to issue “green electricity consumption proof” can be traced back.

Wang dong said that under the guidance of the “dual carbon” target, green development is the general trend. New energy, mainly distributed photovoltaic, has become the main participant in the energy and electricity market. As a distributed accounting technology, block chain has the technical characteristics of irrevocable and untamper-able, which are highly compatible with the business form of power transaction. With the continuous improvement of the green electricity market, non-source, network, load and storage multi-market players enter the green electricity market. Blockchain technology will provide a credible and reliable regulatory environment and an efficient and safe business environment for the green electricity market.

China will release more than 200 million tons of advanced coal production capacity to cope with the current energy shortage. According to the State Administration of Mine Safety, the 153 coal mines currently eligible for supply guarantees can add about 220 million tons of production capacity per year.

In Shanxi Jineng Holding Group Tashan Coal Mine, an important thermal coal production base in China, busy underground mining and transportation scenes are displayed on the big screen of the ground dispatch command center in real time through 5G signals.

A kilometer away from the loading point, 10,000 tons of trains loaded with cleaned coal, turn to the port. After undertaking the supply guarantee task of 20.3 million tons, Jineng Holding Group has accelerated coal production and dispatching. In the first eight days of October, it has shipped 4.4 million tons of coal, up 8.1 percent year-on-year.

Since the beginning of this year, energy prices have risen sharply in the international market, and domestic supply and demand for electricity and coal remain tight. Data from the National Energy Administration showed that electricity consumption in The january-August period increased by 13.8% year-on-year.

In late September, many places in China experienced power rationing, shutdown and production suspension, and several major energy provinces issued notices to ensure coal supply and increase production.

Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi respectively signed long-term coal supply guarantee contracts with more than 10 provinces in the fourth quarter, totaling about 145 million tons. As the top three provinces in raw coal production in China in 2020, their combined output of raw coal exceeded 2.7 billion tons, accounting for 71% of the country’s total output.

The promotion of the action of ensuring supply directly drives the increase of coal production. On Oct. 6, Shanxi issued a notice to start production of coal mines with a planned increase in production capacity, with a net increase of 55.3 million tons per year.

A day later, the Inner Mongolia Energy Bureau announced that 72 coal mines in the region, which have been listed as having nuclear potential, would add about 98 million tons of new production capacity per year. The latest data shows that Inner Mongolia has approved three coal mine capacity increases of 138 million tons per year.

According to Yu Bing, deputy director of the National Energy Administration, daily coal output has stabilized at more than 11.2 million tons, 800,000 tons more than before the National Day holiday and a new high since February.

Jia Kang, head of the China New Supply-side Economics Research Institute, said the current increase in energy supply will help accelerate the release of high-quality coal production capacity, rather than a short-term move to restore backward production capacity, let alone curb China’s long-term plan to save energy and reduce emissions.

“This is also an important measure to ensure the safe and stable operation of energy and electricity and ensure the bottom line of people’s energy consumption.” Jia kang said.

In fact, over the past decade, China has achieved remarkable results in energy conservation and emission reduction. Data from the Ministry of Ecology and Environment showed that in 2018, China fulfilled ahead of schedule its 2020 carbon emission reduction pledge of 40-45 percent from 2005 levels.

In the 14th Five-Year Plan, China has pointed out that it will greatly increase the scale of wind and photovoltaic power generation, develop offshore wind power in an orderly manner, build a number of clean energy bases with multiple complementary energies, and raise the proportion of non-fossil energy to about 20%.

 

According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs, The total value of China’s trade in goods in the first three quarters was 28.33 trillion yuan, up 22.7% over the same period last year. China’s import and export volume has registered positive year-on-year growth for five consecutive quarters. China has not only maintained its position as the largest country in trade in goods, but also further consolidated the foundation for steady and qualitative growth of its foreign trade volume, which has become an important support for long-term growth of the Chinese economy. This string of data also quantifies China’s capacity for effective economic governance.

On the one hand, China’s continuous construction of cooperative and inclusive partnerships has created a favorable external environment for the development of foreign trade. The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated the risk of anti-globalization, leading many countries to re-examine industrial safety and build “self-sufficient” supply chains under the pretext of ensuring “supply chain security”. As a beneficiary of reform and opening-up, China has always adhered to globalization and multilateralism and firmly believed that foreign trade is an important way to optimize the allocation of factors of production. To this end, even during the worst period of the epidemic, China attached great importance to building global partnerships, continued to strengthen cooperation with asean and other traditional trading partners, and took the initiative to lead regional cooperation. In the first three quarters of this year, China’s import and export to ASEAN reached 4.08 trillion yuan, up 21.1 percent. During the same period, imports and exports to the EU, the US, Japan and the ROK were 3.88 trillion yuan, 3.52 trillion yuan, 1.78 trillion yuan and 1.7 trillion yuan respectively. Imports and exports to countries along the Belt and Road and RCEP trading partners all maintained growth. In particular, on September 16, The Ministry of Commerce of China submitted a written letter to the depositor of the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which not only injected new vitality into regional economic and trade cooperation at a low ebb, but also strengthened the resilience of China’s sustained and stable development of foreign trade.

On the other hand, the constant improvement and optimization of domestic demand system has maintained the stability of global value chain and industrial chain. China’s growth drivers are changing, with domestic demand playing a stronger role. In 2020, China’s final consumption rate was close to 55%. Guided by the new pattern of dual-cycle development, China will stick to the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand, accelerate the development of a complete domestic demand system, integrate the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening supply-side structural reform, and create new demand through innovation-driven, high-quality supply. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, MoFCOM will continue to improve the integrated regulation system of domestic and foreign trade, promote the convergence of domestic and foreign trade laws and regulations, regulatory systems, business qualifications, quality standards, inspection and quarantine, certification and accreditation, and promote the same line, same standard and same quality. We will reduce import tariffs and government-imposed costs, increase imports of quality consumer goods, advanced technology, important equipment, energy and resources, and diversify the sources of imports. We will improve export policies, improve the quality and mix of export goods, and steadily increase the added value of exports.

A series of policy measures have produced initial results. In the first three quarters of this year, China’s export of intermediate goods grew by 29.2%, driving up exports by 13.2 percentage points and providing strong support for the smooth operation of the global industrial and supply chains. The semiconductor industry in the central and western regions accelerated development. In the first three quarters, the import of semiconductor manufacturing equipment reached 72.2 billion yuan, up 31.3%, accounting for 44.3% of the total import value of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in the same period, promoting the extension of the electronic equipment manufacturing industry chain in the central and western regions.

In November, the China International Import Expo will be held as scheduled to share China’s market potential with other countries, especially developing countries, and further stabilize the global value chain and supply chain systems hit by COVID-19.

Fabian Desan, founder of GITC, a French company, has already completed the registration of online buyers, making final preparations and tests for the upcoming Canton Fair. Fabian Desan said it is possible to do business with Chinese companies without leaving home, and the digital Canton Fair has injected new momentum into international trade.

Made the first bucket of gold in the Canton Fair

In 2007, 24-year-old French youth Fabian Desan first came to pazhou Canton Fair exhibition hall. The commodities exhibited at the Canton Fair gave him a lot of surprise and inspiration. Behind the cost-effective orders, there are numerous business opportunities waiting for him. “For me, the Canton Fair is an important event for international trade participants. It is a carefully designed place for communication between manufacturers and buyers. Bringing so many manufacturers and products together is a boon for buyers around the world.” Fabian Descant exclaimed.

After earning his first fortune from the Canton Fair, he was deeply impressed by its charm and decided to come to Guangzhou every year to attend the fair. So, every year spring, autumn two sessions of Canton Fair can see the Figure of the French merchant, his business has gradually expanded to more areas, wine, furniture, lamps and lanterns, speakers…

Fabian Desan remembers that the 101st Canton Fair he attended had not only a traditional export exhibition area, but also an import exhibition for the first time, which was open to foreign enterprises. After more than ten years of development, The Canton Fair Import Exhibition has become a high-quality platform for overseas enterprises to expand the Chinese and global markets, attracting more than 15,000 secondary high-quality enterprises from more than 100 countries and regions around the world.

Time flies, and by the time he arrived at the 125th Canton Fair in 2019, he had become both an importer and an exporter. That means he has to find both good imports and the right customers at the Canton Fair to export his products to China.

Fabian Desan is also a vlogger on an overseas social media platform. He is keen on sharing what he has seen and heard at the Canton Fair with netizens from all over the world. “It’s very comfortable to trade at the Canton Fair, and just being there shows that these companies are very good companies.” When walking around the show, he liked to mingle with the Chinese traders at the booths. He praised the exhibits he liked, imagined their application in various scenarios, and shared his joy of discovering new designs with the audience of the “cloud” side facing the camera.

“Cloud” on the exhibition to witness the development of new marketing model

“In the past, I used to fly to Guangzhou to participate in the Canton Fair, but now due to the impact of the epidemic, I cannot go to China to purchase goods, which has a great impact on our business.” Thanks to the Canton Fair’s move to the “cloud,” Fabian Desan said, “I can talk to Chinese companies without leaving home.” Despite the impact of the global pandemic on international trade, he signed multiple orders with Chinese companies through the online Canton Fair and completed the transaction of about seven containers of goods.

Fabian is bullish: “The positive thing about the Canton Fair for the future is that we are witnessing with manufacturers the development of new marketing models. Many manufacturers have created virtual showrooms and broadcast them live on video, with great success. I think in the future, apart from offline Canton Fair, online virtual Canton Fair will continue to develop.”

Fabian Desan’s prediction was accurate. The 130th Canton Fair will be held online and offline. 7,500 companies participated in the offline exhibition, which is still the largest offline exhibition in the world in terms of scale. The online exhibition will maintain the original 60,000 booths and continue to provide an online trade cooperation and exchange platform for 26,000 enterprises and global buyers.

Although the Canton Fair on the “cloud” has greatly facilitated the communication between customers and manufacturers, Fabian Desan is still looking forward to coming back to China after the epidemic is over to meet with partners and manufacturers here and experience the unique human touch and cultural atmosphere of the offline Canton Fair.

Electricity shortage is the protagonist of this round of crisis, and then coal shortage, oil shortage, gas shortage have emerged, accompanied by power rationing, panic buying gasoline, energy suppliers collapse and other phenomena, Europe and the United States of natural gas, thermal coal, electricity prices have hit a record high, we began to realize that the global energy dilemma.

How to view the current global energy dilemma? In Europe, natural gas accounts for a larger share of electricity generation than coal, which has sown the seeds for a sharp rise in natural gas prices amid the energy crisis, analysts said. The risk of blackouts around the world this winter is likely to increase, which could further push up energy prices and unleash a new wave of global inflation.

However, some economists hold a different view, saying that the global energy problem is mainly caused by the imbalance between supply and demand and will not last long. Foreign oil and gas prices will have a certain impact. However, the government can also take certain measures to respond.

In addition, under the background of the global energy crisis becoming more and more intense, part of public opinion will be “spearhead” directed at green electricity, once high hopes of green electricity became “carry the pot man”. In the future, can green electricity shoulder the heavy responsibility?

“The current global energy problem is mainly caused by a temporary imbalance between supply and demand.”

Global energy prices have been rising since the second half of the year. In America and Europe, gas prices accelerated, with IPE’s gas and thermal coal prices hitting record highs of 213p/tonne and $230 / tonne respectively on October 8th. Oil prices hit a post-2020 high of $82.56 a barrel on October 5. Affected by this, many countries in Europe and the United States to refresh the price record. At home, coal prices have also risen to record highs, which in turn has increased the cost of power generation and led to localised blackouts.

“This energy crisis revolves around fossil fuels such as natural gas, oil and coal, and is accompanied by global electricity shortages and rising electricity prices.” Citic Securities research report pointed out.

Why the current global energy dilemma?

Ming Ming of CITIC Securities believes that natural gas, as a relatively clean fossil energy, plays an important role in the energy transformation of many countries. Among them, the electricity production structure in Europe has been adjusted faster, and the proportion of renewable energy, nuclear energy and natural gas in the overall power generation structure is greater than that of coal, which also sowed the seeds for the sharp rise of natural gas prices in the energy crisis. Demand for natural gas in Europe is increasing as production activity recovers and seasonal gas use peaks. Demand for natural gas as a substitute for wind, hydropower and other electricity production in Europe, which has been weakened by more extreme weather this year, has been further boosted. In addition, geopolitical factors between Europe and Russia may also play a role in the shortage of Gas supplies in Europe. In the case of oil, shortages of other energy sources, such as natural gas and coal, are also expected to have a knock-on effect, supporting oil prices while demand is not expected to change in the short term.

However, Lin Boqiang, director of the China Institute of Energy Policy Studies at Xiamen University, had a different view when he spoke to the Beijing News. He argues that, on the whole, there is a global shortage of energy capacity. For example, if there is a shortage of oil, why did the Opec meeting call for oil production limits? The same is true in China. The recent phenomenon of power rationing is not because China is short of coal or electricity. Except for some areas, China’s coal and power production capacity is sufficient.

Lin boqiang further said that the current global energy problems are mainly caused by temporary imbalance between supply and demand. “At present, the economy is recovering from the impact of the epidemic. In particular, the demand for industrial production is strong, and the supply of energy and other raw materials cannot keep up, so there is a shortage of oil, gas and electricity. However, these short-term phenomena are not due to the shortage of production capacity, but due to the impact of the epidemic, transportation and other economic links have not fully recovered.”

How long will this energy crisis last?

The rising prices of energy products have caused power shortages around the world, affecting industrial production and household life. So how long will this energy crisis last?

Citic Securities Ming Ming team forecast that in the short term, the price of major energy products high difficult to change. “Rising electricity prices will increase the risk of regional blackouts this winter, which could further drive up energy prices and a new wave of global inflation.”

However, Lin boqiang believes that the current global energy shortage is mainly caused by the disruption of transportation and logistics systems by the epidemic, and these problems will gradually improve and be resolved as the epidemic recovers. “The current energy problems the world is facing are not going to last for long,” he said. “The current energy problems are far from being what we would call an energy crisis.” Lin boqiang said.

It is also worth paying attention to the impact of the global energy crisis on China. Ming Ming of CITIC Securities pointed out that in recent years, coal still dominates China’s energy structure, but its proportion is declining rapidly, while the proportion of petroleum products and natural gas is rising. China still has a certain degree of external dependence on natural gas, crude oil and other energy resources, and the degree of external dependence has been increasing in recent years. Therefore, the outbreak of the global energy crisis will also affect China’s production and residents’ activities to a certain extent. “The global energy crisis is expected to have an impact on the domestic industrial chain through raw material prices and electricity prices.”

Lin Boqiang also said that the current pricing power of global oil and natural gas prices lies abroad, and with the rise of global oil and natural gas prices, it will directly affect China’s oil and natural gas prices. However, he said the government can also take certain measures to deal with it. “For example, in order to prevent the cost of power generation companies from continuing to rise, the National Development and Reform Commission has introduced measures to reform the electricity market price, which can also increase coal capacity in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and other places.”

The proportion of electricity generated by the hot installation is negligible, so whether green electricity can carry the big beam in the future

The global energy crisis is becoming more and more intense, part of the public opinion will be “spearhead” directed at the green electricity, once high expectations of the green electricity became “carry the pot man”.

On October 7th the Economist reported that low wind speeds in Europe, which have reduced renewable energy production, are also contributing to the crisis. The report further pointed out that European countries have embarked on a green energy transition, resulting in a long-term decline in investment in fossil fuels, resulting in a short-term energy crisis. Liaoning province also partly blamed a sharp drop in wind power production for its power shortfall from Sept. 23 to Sept. 25.

When the sky falls tall men stand on top of it. At present, the proportion of the whole energy system is not high, “size” is still small green electricity embarrassed big in fact, it is expected. More industry experts say that the nature of green electricity “depends on the weather” has not changed, and people’s high expectations for green electricity have become unbearable.

With the proposal of dual carbon target, China’s green electricity installation ushered in explosive growth.

According to statistics released by the National Energy Administration, 190 million kw of new power capacity will be installed in 2020, accounting for 9.5 percent of the total installed power capacity to 2.2 billion kW. Of the new installed capacity, hydropower 13.23 million kW, accounting for 3.4 percent, wind power 71.67 million KW, accounting for 34.6 percent, and solar power 48.2 million KW, accounting for 24.1 percent. Wind and solar power combined added 120 million kilowatts, accounting for about 63 percent of the increase, becoming the leading force in China’s power supply growth. At the same time, 55.9 million kw of new thermal power capacity will be installed in 2020, accounting for only 4.7 percent of the total.

Green power march in a big way, thermal power “retreat”. However, in terms of actual power generation, thermal power is still the ballast stone of domestic power generation, and the performance of wind power and photovoltaic power generation is not proportional to the total installed capacity.

In 2020, China’s thermal power generation accounted for 67.87 percent of the country’s total power generation, down 7.56 percent from 75.43 percent in 2014. In contrast, wind power and photoelectric power generation accounted for 6.12% and 3.42% respectively, accounting for 9.52% in total, less than 10%.

The contrast between the performance of green electricity and the booming installed capacity can also be seen from the “power rationing” incident in Liaoning Province. According to the Liaoning Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology, the total installed wind power capacity in the three northeastern provinces reached about 35 million kilowatts, but after the cold air on Sept. 21, the output decreased significantly, accounting for less than 10 percent of the total installed wind power capacity. What’s more, according to the State Grid dispatch and Control center, at the peak of the summer, the 35 gigawatts of wind power installed in the northeast once produced a total of 34 gigawatts, almost nothing.

Lin Boqiang, director of the China Institute for Energy Policy Studies at Xiamen University, believes that despite the rapid development of photovoltaic and wind power in the past decade, their nature of “relying on the weather” has not changed. Pv at night can’t generate electricity, water and electricity is also depends on the season or the plentiful, catch up with the season, also need to bear the storage function, such as the output (output) may be sheared, wind power has been the industry known as “waste electricity”, small wind, the electricity demand big day of the electricity demand less capacity is larger at night.

Is it possible to blame green power for this “blackout”?

Lin boqiang believes that this argument is groundless. This time around the power rationing, more or thermal power generation inadequate. “New energy is too small, accounted for a negligible proportion, you put it (wind, light) all turn off no problem, volatility, indirect, wind power, photovoltaic shortcomings are there, but accounted for only 9%, so the current discussion of wind power photovoltaic on the impact of the lack of electricity some too hasty.”

The new energy industry is also opposed to the above views.

China’s electricity supply is still dominated by fossil fuels such as coal, and the problem of “power rationing” is mainly caused by the shortage of coal supply and demand and the upside down price of coal and power, tongwei Group, a silicon leading company, said in an interview with Beijing News shell Finance on October 11. In addition, the industry another leading longji shares to shell finance similar statements.

Although, at present, “switch off power rationing” has little to do with green electricity, but with the promotion of the dual carbon goal, can green electricity shoulder the big beam and shoulder the heavy responsibility?

Experts generally believe that in the future, green electricity consumption, transmission and distribution, fluctuation and other issues need the development of energy storage. Energy storage is the conversion of a form of energy that is harder to store into a technically easier and cheaper form for storage. At present, common energy storage methods include pumped storage, electrochemical energy storage, flywheel energy storage (new energy storage technology, still in the early stage of commercialization), hydrogen energy storage.

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Measurement(weight & size)

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Quantity check

Measurement(weight & size)

Basic function check

Assembly test

Rub test

Pull test

Fatigue test

Smell check

Barcode scan

3M tape test for Logo